However, I want to note that there is serious potential for Doctor Strange to overperform in a big way in Asian markets, and we'll have a good early indication from this week's numbers and its opening next weekend in China. But for now, I'll say I expect it to perform somewhere in the $600+ million range, with $550 million being a modest lower-end estimate in my mind and $650-700 million being a higher-end estimate at the moment. We are still a week away from its wide release, so we should have better tracking numbers soon, and we will get some early foreign receipt data when it opens in a more than 30 territories this week. Meaning we aren't realistically going to see a figure lower than $500 million.
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I don't believe Doctor Strange will perform to the lower end of estimates and multipliers, for a variety of reasons spelled out above, plus the simple fact of how good it is (which I'll get to momentarily in my full review). Finally, a slightly better foreign percentage of the final cume could bump it up into the $680-700 million range.
But an opening closer to the higher-end of estimates - say around $80 million - and a 3.1x multiplier like Ant-Man would lead to a worldwide figure more in the $600 million range. So a modest estimate might be $175-195 million domestically, which according to typical performance would translate into perhaps $265-300 million foreign and a low-to-modest-range global total in the $440-495 million range. And I think it's reasonable to expect it'll open domestically in the $60-80 million range. I think it's reasonable to expect Doctor Strange to have at least a domestic multiplier around 2.5-3x, but it could go higher depending on how strong word of mouth is. And it will benefit from the Marvel branding, since I think at this point Marvel releases are generally not going to make less than $500 million anymore.
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It will benefit from having a significant portion of the movie set in Asian locales. It will benefit from the popularity of big-budget, high-quality fantasy/magic genre storytelling. It will benefit from positive reviews (I think the final Rotten Tomato score will probably drop below 90%, but that it'll still retain overall highly positive reception). It will obviously benefit from superhero cinema's popularity (and if you doubt the strength of this, look at the box office cume for Suicide Squad - $745 million despite bad reviews, constant "it'll never be successful" talking points from its detractors and the media overall, and after so many months of summer superhero releases). Meanwhile, those who perhaps skip Doctor Strange in early weeks could be compelled to seek it out later if Fantastic Beasts excites them and leaves them enthusiastic for more, or if that film instead leaves them unsatisfied and so they seek something else to provide what was lacking. That it plays to the magical fantasy audience, but offers something uniquely different, works to its advantage, and many people will see it as a chance to get an early dose of fantasy before Rowling's movie arrives in theaters. Rowling's franchise will have an overall effect of making audiences more eager and interested in similar elements obvious in Marvel's film. I'm also inclined to think the proximity to Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them will help Doctor Strange, since interest in the magical fantasy elements of J.K. It could open higher if the reviews remain as positive as they are so far (it's Rotten Tomatoes score as of this writing is an impressive 98%) and audiences give it the usual high grade we see for Marvel's movies.Īs I discussed in more detail the other day, the fantasy elements should help the film perform particularly well overseas, as will the star power of Benedict Cumberbatch in the lead role. In North America, I expect Doctor Strange to perform to the tune of perhaps $70 million. Tracking already points to an initial foreign debut (in less than half of its overseas markets) this week in the range of $60-65 million, as a lead-in to its domestic opening and wider release overseas the following weekend.
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